(RNN) — The political makeup of the Senate is set to change again as the Activists are currently enjoying a double-digit lead over the governing Constructivists, this comes only three months after the Constructivists rallied late to overcome the Activists by a single vote during the Fall midterm election. While the previous election was contested between the Activists and the Constructivists, this senate election seems to be mirroring the recent Prime Minister and cabinet races where the Activists outperformed expectations that were already leaning in their favor. When the polls close in just under 24 hours, the Activists will find themselves with a strong mandate to govern as they'll be the largest party in the Senate. However they will be three seats shy of an outright majority, and thus are expected to open coalition talks with any of the three minor parties. It is worth noting that the Activists need only 10 seats in the senate in order to govern on their own, for the Deputy Prime Minister is an Activist and will presumably back the Activist agenda and their caucus. Possible coalition scenarios can be found below: Activist/Liberal Democratic Parties: 2 Expected Seats: 7 + 4 = 11 Type: Minimum Winning Coalition Activist/Social Equality Parties: 2 Expected Seats: 7 + 2 = 9 Type: Connected Coalition (Minority) Activist/Liberal Democratic/Social Equality Parties: 3 Expected Seats: 7 + 4 + 2 = 13 Type: Oversized Coalition Activist/Constructive Parties: 2 Expected Seats: 7 + 5 = 12 Type: Grand Coalition While it is assumed that the Activists will end up in the majority, there is one plausible coalition that could keep the Constructivists in power. While unlikely, it would consist of an arrangement between the Constructivists, Liberal Democrats and the Regional Front. Those three parties together would cobble up 11 seats, the bare minimum for a ruling majority. Although the Liberal Democrats have stated in the past that they believe the party that received the most votes, and that party alone, have the mandate to govern. And in this case, it's the Activists that have received the most votes. The current election results can be found below, or by using this link. RNN's UDR contributed to this report.
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