(OPINION) ― As the Founder of the New Western Atlantic and the regional Constructive party I have experienced and witnessed the politics of this region for roughly three years now, and things weren't always the way they are now. Dating back to when I was in the Empire of Oppression, our sister region, parties didn't even exist. But after some time I started mulling over the possibility of creating a political party, and after pitching the idea to an acquaintance he concurred that the idea was reasonably sound. After an hour of discussion, he and I settled on the idea of creating a right-leaning political party and titling it as the 'Constructive' party. Within a month the party controlled the entire cabinet and the Prime Minister was also a registered member of the party, political dominance by a single party that has never been achieved up until the recent Atlantican general election.
That was two years ago, and elections in the region have since been extraordinarily close and marginal victories are frequent such as when Riost prevailed by two votes over Bergonnia in the July Prime Minister election or when Thornian eked out a .91% win over Activist challenger O-Broki. Although even more recently, the Activists certainly have improved their standing in regional politics as they enjoy a double-digit lead in party registration as well as a 37% to 26% lead over the Constructivists in party preference polling. Last Fall however, the Constructivists led the Activists by 35% to 27% and consequently made pickups in the cabinet and even handed Rheta, leader of the Liberal Democrats, a defeat in the Justice Minister election. Granted, politics in the region was more conservative then and as time has progressed the region's immigration has resulted in a significantly larger and more diverse electorate. Naturally, that chipped away at the right's advantage in registration and led to the closely contested elections that the region has witnessed this past year. The Constructivists handed the Activists defeat in the senate midterm election back in September, albeit barely. The party was unable to capitalize on that senate victory as their Prime Minister candidate received a dismal four percent as he was plagued by a corruption scandal that also involved the Liberal Democratic and Regional Front candidates, respectively. The Constructivists also witnessed their share of the vote fall to just above 25% of the vote in the senate election, an eight point drop from the 33% they received in the midterm. Meanwhile the Activists went from 32% to slightly above 38%, becoming the largest vote total ever received by a party in a senate election. The Liberal Democrats saw virtually no change as they garnered nearly 19% of the vote, up only .8%, and took third place. What's interesting from these results is that the Activists increased by six points from the Fall senate election, a number that almost identically matches the seven point drop by the Constructivists. The shift in the vote totals shouldn't be overlooked, and it's worth noting that the Activists received almost as many votes as the Constructivists and Liberal Democrats combined. Numbers aside though, there is one thing that has been neglected during this post-election conversation― ideology. When the Constructivists were founded, it was a slightly right of center party that consisted of individuals such as Kyro, Trade Federations and myself. Those three all have one thing in common: centrism, or at the very least, pragmatism. Activists often quip that Kyro or myself would not survive in today’s Constructive party, and some would enter a state of shock if they looked into some of our views that would be considered too left for the party. Trade Federations is on the verge of being shoved out the door by the hard right constructivists not only for his apparent lack of activity, but because of his more pragmatic and moderate political views. Furthermore, Trade Federations is almost out of place in the Constructive party and is actually more in line with the modern Liberal Democrats. This can be seen with how well he and Bergonnia get along, including when both worked together in the Senate as well as during the Becklana v. Trade Federations trial. Amongst the wider populace however, the Constructive chairman is quite popular and well-liked. In fact, he was the only Constructivist to outpoll Prime Minister Riost in a hypothetical matchup. In that poll, he actually siphons nearly half of the Liberal Democratic vote, which further highlights how his views are more suitable for the Liberal Democrats than the modern Constructivists. The Constructivists did manage to be somewhat of a big tent party not too long ago as even Chief Justice New Danican, who is a progressive in his politics, was briefly registered in the party before completely withdrawing from party politics. However the party's base has, by and large, swung to the right and it even forced Kyro to become an Activist before he decided to hang it all up and leave NationStates altogether over a year ago. As the Constructivists have swung rightward, the Liberal Democrats have followed almost identically in their footsteps. Once a social liberal party has now became center right, and this is proven as several disaffected Constructivists, most notably Dependants and Rahambia, switched their party registration to Liberal Democratic. Even today, Senator Dukna (LBD) declared that he would prefer a coalition with the Constructivists and even the Regional Front if it meant keeping the Activists or the Democratic Socialists out of government. This comes only three months after Liberal Democratic Chairman Rheta ruled out any sort of formal coalition with the hard right Regional Front during the coalition talks between the Constructivists and the Liberal Democrats, even going as far to call some of their proposed policies "abhorrent" and a "spit in the face" to the region. Were it not for the fact that the Liberal Democrats are ideologically diverse and lack a singular ideology; he too would be out of place for the party. Which for all intents and purposes, Rheta is more in line with the Activists than his own party. Fortunately for him, the one thing the party seems to be in total agreement on is that he's a good chairman. But one thing is for certain, the center right territory that was essentially vacated by the Constructivists has all but been filled by the Liberal Democrats' drift to the right. The Activists have just came off the heels of an election victory that saw them retain Prime Minister while making gains in the ministries and flipping control of the senate. While this is an achievement and is nothing short of remarkable, it's worth noting that their success was bolstered by the coupling of an ideological center that's been abandoned by the Liberal Democrats and a Constructive party that's in near disarray. The Activist party finds itself in an interesting state in that while its manifesto appeals to progressives, social democrats and socialists alike, the way in which they've governed the region is very much centrist and third way-esque. They managed to secure a plurality of unaffiliated voters as well as a fifth of the Liberal Democratic vote in the senate election, and an even higher share of it in the Prime Minister election. The Activists have all but become what the Liberal Democrats were, and it helped carry them to their victory in the general election. While I concede that diversity and immigration partially contribute to the Activist surge over these past several months, party appearance is likely the most important factor. It's widely agreed that the leadership and caucus unity in the party is like none other, and their pragmatic approach in governance has helped them shore up votes across the spectrum. While mostly hailing from the center and the left, they also managed to get a stamp of approval from Communications Minister Thornian, a rightist who converted to the Activists following his successful reelection. The Constructivists can rebound and take back control of government; however the solution is not simple, and stopping this shift will not be easy. Merely changing the party that occupies the senate or is Prime Minister will not reverse the current drift in party politics, but only can the base of the opposition party if they want to be competitive next election and chip away at the ever-expanding Activist voter bloc. The alternative is the erosion of competitive democracy in the region, and that's good for no one― save perhaps the Activists. RNN's UDR contributed to this opinion piece.
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